喀什—乌恰地区近年来强震活动平静的可能成因

地震 ›› 2007, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (2): 99-111.

喀什—乌恰地区近年来强震活动平静的可能成因

王琼¹, 王海涛^1,2, 赵卫明³, 聂晓红¹

1.新疆维吾尔自治区地震局, 新疆乌鲁木齐 830011;
2.中国地震局预测研究所兰州科技创新基地, 甘肃兰州 730000;
3.宁夏回族自治区地震局, 宁夏银川 750001

收稿日期:2006-08-21 修回日期:2006-11-14 出版日期:2007-04-30 发布日期:2021-10-29
作者简介:王琼(1973-), 女, 山东淄博人, 硕士, 副研究员, 主要从事地震综合预报等研究。
基金资助:
地震科学联合基金项目资助(A07095)和新疆地震科学基金(200502)

Possible reason of quiescence of strong earthquake in Kashi-Wuqia Region in recent years

WANG Qiong¹, WANG Hai-tao^1,2, ZHAO Wei-ming³, NIE Xiao-hong

1. Earthquake Administration of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomy region, Urumqi 830011;
2. Lanzhou Base of Institute of Earthquake Science, CEA, Lanzhou 730000;
3. Earthquake Administration of Ningxia Province, Yinchuan 750001, China

Received:2006-08-21 Revised:2006-11-14 Online:2007-04-30 Published:2021-10-29

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 通过分析喀什—乌恰地区和伽师—柯坪块区强震产生的静态库仑破裂应力变化(ΔCFS), 从断层相互作用和中等地震活动加、减速特征的角度, 初步论证了两个区域强震活动交替发生特征的可能机理。库仑破裂应力和加速矩释放模型拟合结果表明, 伽师—柯坪地区1997—1998年成组发生的伽师6级强震、新疆南部周边发生的1992年苏萨梅尔M_S7.5地震和2005年巴基斯坦7.8级地震产生的静态应力变化不利于喀什—乌恰地区强震的发生, 可能使得该区后续强震的发生时间延迟了。另一方面, 位于1992年苏萨梅尔M_S7.5地震和1997—2003年伽师系列强震产生的ΔCFS为负的喀什—乌恰地区地震活动表现为弱加速特征, 这或许是1993年以来喀什—乌恰地区强震平静特征的原因。喀什—乌恰地区7级地震产生的正的ΔCFS可能有利于伽师—柯坪地区后续强震的发生, 3组7级地震产生的ΔCFS为正的区域内后续强震发生前均出现了一定程度的加速特征, 从而定量解释了喀什—乌恰地区强震活动对伽师—柯坪块区地震活动的影响。

关键词: 静态库仑破裂应力, AMR模型, 喀什—乌恰地区, 伽师—柯坪块区

Abstract: By analyzing static Coulomb failure stress change(ΔCFS) from strong earthquakes in Kashi-Wuqia region and Jiashi-Keping block, and combining with fault interaction and the accelerated and decelerated characteristics of moderate earthquakes, the article analyzes the possible mechanism of alternant occurrence of strong earthquakes in the two regions. Coulomb failure stress change and fitting result of accelerated moment release model show that 1997 to 1998 grouped Jiashi strong earthquakes with M_S6 in Jiashi-Keping region, 1992 Susamer earthquake with M_S7.5 occurred in the southern Xinjiang and 2005 Pakistan earthquake with M_S7.8 discourage the occurrence of strong earthquakes in Kashi-Wuqia region, and maybe delay the occurrence of the following strong earthquakes. On the other hand, seismic activity in the Kashi-Wuqia region with the negative ΔCFS, where is from 1992 Susamer earthquake with M_S7.5 and 1997 to 2003 Jiashi strong earthquakes, is characteristics of weak acceleration, which possibly results in the quiescence of strong earthquakes from 1993 in Kashi-Wuqia region. The positive ΔCFS from M_S7 earthquakes in Kashi-Wuqia region maybe encourages the following strong earthquakes in Jiashi-Keping region, and there exists certain accelerated characteristics before the following strong earthquakes in the positive ΔCFS region from 3 grouped M_S7 earthquakes, which explains quantitatively the influence of strong earthquake activity in Kashi-Wuqia region on seismicity in Jiashi-Keping region.

Key words: Static Coulomb failure stress, AMR model, Kashi-Wuqia block, Jiashi-Keping region

中图分类号:

P315.72

王琼, 王海涛, 赵卫明, 聂晓红. 喀什—乌恰地区近年来强震活动平静的可能成因[J]. 地震, 2007, 27(2): 99-111.

WANG Qiong, WANG Hai-tao, ZHAO Wei-ming, NIE Xiao-hong. Possible reason of quiescence of strong earthquake in Kashi-Wuqia Region in recent years[J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2007, 27(2): 99-111.

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