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地震 ›› 2002, Vol. 22 ›› Issue (1): 97-103.

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地下水动态趋势和短临异常

曹新来, 薛经, 王贺生, 李玉春, 李玉   

  1. 河北省地震局,河北石家庄 050021
  • 收稿日期:2001-02-19 修回日期:2001-04-25 出版日期:2002-01-31 发布日期:2021-12-21
  • 作者简介:曹新来(1948-),男,河北正定人,高级工程师,主要从事地下流体地震预报研究。

Dynamic tendency of underground water level and its imminent anomalies

CAO Xin-lai, XUE Jing, WANG He-sheng, LI Yu-chun, LI Yu   

  1. Seismological Bureau of Hebei Province, Shijiazhuang 050021, China
  • Received:2001-02-19 Revised:2001-04-25 Online:2002-01-31 Published:2021-12-21

摘要: 在无其他因素引起水量增、减条件下,地下水动态大于一年的趋势变化是地下水动态的异常变化。识别地下水动态异常变化的条件是调查观测井的水文地质环境、水动力条件及水量有无变化。在趋势异常发展背景下地下水动态趋势的转折与地震活动有关。列举了河间等三口井近年来的水位观测结果,表明短临异常在震前均有趋势变化背景,因此短临异常的判别要以趋势变化分析为基础。地下水动态趋势异常和短临异常随时间的分布是有序的,用序列异常方法分析异常与地震活动形势,研究序列异常发生、发展、演变的规律与地震活动的关系,对地震发生的时间和强度有较好的预报意义。

关键词: 动态趋势, 水动力条件, 短临异常, 地震预报

Abstract: Change of underground water leveldy namic tendency for more thanone year may be anomalousone, when there is no increasing or decreasing in water quantity. It is the prerequisite for investigating the hydrogeologic environment, hydrodynamic condition and the change in water quantity for the recognition of underground water level'sdyna micanomaly. Under the background of anomalous tendency, the turning of dyna mic tendency forunderground water level is related to seismicity. Here we present some strong earth-quake examples occurred in recent years. These events show that the imminent anomalies before the earthquakes all had tendency changes. Therefore, thedetermination for short-termor imminent anomalies should be basedon tendency analysis.
The timedistribution forunderground water level's tendency anomalies and its immi-nent anomalies is in adefiniteorder. Analyzing anomalies and seismicity with sequence method and studying the relationship between the anomalies occurrence, development and seismicity is of significance for earthquake prediction.

Key words: Dynamic tendency, Hydrody namic condition, Short-termor imminent anomalies, Earthquake prediction

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