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地震

地震 ›› 2002, Vol. 22 ›› Issue (2): 9-12.

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地震预报科学发展需要新思维和新的观测手段

张晓东   

  1. 中国地震局分析预报中心,北京 100036
  • 收稿日期:2002-02-25 修回日期:2002-03-01 出版日期:2002-04-30 发布日期:2021-12-21
  • 作者简介:张晓东(1962-),男,北京延庆人,研究员,国家科技攻关项目《强地震短期预测与救灾技术研究》负责人,主要从事地震预报等研究。
  • 基金资助:
    国家科技攻关项目《强地震短期预测与救灾技术研究》(01-01-05-07)

Development of earthquake prediction science needs new ideas and observational approaches

ZHANG Xiao-dong   

  1. Center for Analysis and Prediction, CSB, Beijing 100036, China
  • Received:2002-02-25 Revised:2002-03-01 Online:2002-04-30 Published:2021-12-21

PDF (PC)

144

摘要： 通过对地震预报现状的分析,认为传统的地震预报思路仍是目前经验性地震预报所依托的。但是要想从质上提高地震预报水平,使地震预报水平上一个大的台阶,必须引入新的思维和新的观测手段。新思维常常产生于新的观测结果中和隐含于失败的地震预报教训中。地震科学是一门依赖于观测的科学,新的观测手段和新的研究思路在地震预报的科学发展中将起到重要的或决定性的作用。

关键词: 地震预报, 新思维, 新手段

Abstract: The state of the artregarding the earthquake prediction in China isdeeply discussed in this paper. It is considered that the traditional earthquake prediction thinking has been stilldirected the recent empierical prediction. If we want toraise the level of earthquake prediction, we have to introduce new ideas and new observational approaches. The new ideas are usuallyorigina ted from the new observational results and hidden in failure lessons of earthquake prediction practic e. The earthquakescience is suchakind of science, which relies on the observation. So, the newand modern earthquake precursory observational approaches and techniques will play a key role in development of earthquake prediction science.

Key words: Earthquake prediction, New idea, New observational approach

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