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地震 ›› 1998, Vol. 18 ›› Issue (1): 28-32.

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1996年11月9日长江口以东6.1级地震的模糊预测和模糊跟踪

章纯, 林命周   

  1. 中国上海 200062 上海市地震局
  • 收稿日期:1997-04-01 修回日期:1997-07-30 出版日期:1997-12-31 发布日期:2022-05-10
  • 作者简介:章纯,女,1962年12月出生,助理研究员,主要从事地震预报及震害预测研究工作．

FUZZY PREDICTION AND FUZZY TRACING OF EAST ESTUARY OF YANGTZE RIVER EARTHQUAKE WITH M =6.1 ON NOV. 9, 1996

Zhang Chun, Lin Mingzhou   

  1. Seismological Bureau of Shanghai Municipality, Shanghai 200062, China
  • Received:1997-04-01 Revised:1997-07-30 Online:1997-12-31 Published:2022-05-10

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摘要： 把模糊数学方法引入地震预测已有十余年的历史,在众多的结果中选择模糊编网、灰色模糊模型、日本海沟和本地区的模糊相关及显著地震发生后的模糊跟踪,作为长、中、短（临）和震后趋势判断的各个环节,构成了地震的模糊预测方法。1996年11月9日（简称“11.9”飞下同）长江口以东海中6.1级地震前后,根据模糊方法作了各阶段预测,分别列入近几年的上海市地 震局地震会商报告中,震前预测和震后跟踪结果与实际基本一致。可以说这次地震是模糊方法取得较为成功的一个震例。

关键词: 模糊数学, 地震预测, 趋势跟踪, 模糊编网, 灰色模糊模型, 模糊相关

Abstract: There have been more than ten years since the fuzzy mathematics methods was intro­duced into the earthquake prediction. Among the various results, this paper chose the fuzzy net, the grey fuzzy model, the fuzzy correlation between Japan oceanic trench and this re­gion, the fuzzy tracing after the occurrence of a significant earthquake as the different key points of the preseismic long-, medium- and short-term prediction and the postseismic trend analysis which constituting the seismic fuzzy prediction method. Before and after the occurrence of east Estuary of Yangtze River Earthquake with Ms 6. 1 ,on Nov. 9, 1996, the predictions for every period were made by using the fuzzy methods and listed in the seismo­logical consultation reports raised by Seismological Bureau of Shanghai Municipality in re­cent years. The preseismic prediction and the postseismic tracing result are basically con­sistent with the actual situation. Therefore, we may consider this earthquake as a typical successful example for the earthquake prediction by using fuzzy methods.

Key words: Fuzzy mathematics, Earthquake prediction, Trend tracing, Fuzzy net, Grey fuzzy model, Fuzzy correlation