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地震 ›› 1998, Vol. 18 ›› Issue (2): 105-111.

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地震发生非稳态泊松过程和中长期概率预测研究

傅征祥, 粟生平, 王晓青   

  1. 中国北京 100036 国家地震局分析预报中心
  • 收稿日期:1997-10-19 修回日期:1997-11-21 出版日期:1998-04-30 发布日期:2022-05-10
  • 作者简介:傅征祥,男,1941年1月出生,研究员,1996年博士生导师,主要从事地震活动性及其力学机制、中长期地震预测等研究工作。
  • 基金资助:
    国家地震局“九五”科研攻关项目(95-04-07-02-02).

NON-STATIONARY POISSON PROCESS OF EARTHQUAKE OCCURRENCE AND RESEARCH ON LONG-AND MEDIUM-TERM PROBABILISTIC EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION

Fu Zhengxiang, Su Shengping, Wang Xiaoqing   

  1. Center for Analysis and Prediction, SSB, Beijing 100036, China
  • Received:1997-10-19 Revised:1997-11-21 Online:1998-04-30 Published:2022-05-10

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摘要： 在描述事件非稳态泊松过程的基本统计特征及其与稳态泊松过程差别的基础上,将非稳态泊松过程应用在华北地震区汾渭带和华北平原地震带的中长期地震预测研究中。研究表明,假定未来几百年间,汾渭带和华北平原带的强震 (M≥7.0)活动,将重现上一次地震轮回的非稳态泊松时间过程,那么,在2010年前它们发生一次7级大地震的累计概率分别为0. 26(不确定性范围: 0.06~0.50)和0.04(不确定性范围: 0.00~0.13)。它们明显地低于按稳态泊松过程得到的发生概率。

关键词: 非稳态泊松过程, 中长期地震预测, 华北地震区

Abstract: This paper describes the basic statistical characteristics of non-stationary Poisson process of the events and differences between non-stationary and stationary Poisson processes, and applies the non-stationary Poisson process to study the long-and medium-term probabilistic earthquake prediction in North China seismic area. Suppo sing that the non-stationary Poisson time process of strong earthquakes ( MS≥7.0) , in the last seismic cycle for the Fenwei and North China Plain seismic zones in North China seismic area would recur in the coming several hundred years, the cumulative probability for occurrence of a strong earthquake (MS≥7.0) in the two zones should respectively be 0.26( uncertainty range: 0.06~0.50) and 0.04( uncertainty range: 0.00~0.13) before 2010, which are obviously less than that calculated based on the stationary Poisson process.

Key words: Non-stationary process, Long-and Medium-term probabilistic earthquake prediction, North China seismic area