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地震 ›› 1998, Vol. 18 ›› Issue (2): 171-176.

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某些测震学指标与地震相关性研究

郑兆苾, 张军, 黄显良   

  1. 中国合肥 230031安徽省地震局
  • 收稿日期:1997-05-22 修回日期:1997-09-12 出版日期:1998-04-30 发布日期:2022-05-10
  • 作者简介:郑兆,女,1946年8月出生,副研究员,主要从事地震分析预报等研究工作。

CORRELATABILITY OF SOME SEISMOLOGICALLY ANOMALOUS INDICES AND EARTHQUAKES

Zheng Zhaobi, Zhang Jun, Huang Xianliang   

  1. Seis mological Bureau of Anh ui Province, Hefei 230031, China
  • Received:1997-05-22 Revised:1997-09-12 Online:1998-04-30 Published:2022-05-10

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摘要： 通过对10项测震学指标近10 a的大范围时空扫描得出的有震和无震“预报”进行了与5.0级以上地震的相关性研究,结果证明这10项指标当显著性水平较低时,均可通过统计检验,表明是有效的提取异常指标。作者还依统计检验结果对10项测震学指标与地震相关性好坏进行了排序,并通过分析得到各指标今后优化方向。

关键词: 预报指标, 预报效能评估, 相关性分析, 统计检验

Abstract: Authors have collected the data of seismic and aseismic prediction elements concerning ten seismologically anomalo us indices from 1987 to 1996, in the range of 29~37°N and 113~123°E, and studied the correla tability between these seismological indices and five earthquakes with MS ≥ 5.0. All the ten indices have past the statistical test when the significance level is lower. The results show that these anomalous indices are effective. Based on the results of statistical tests, authors arranged the ten indices in order of the good and bad, and the suggestions of the improvement direction are given in the paper.

Key words: Prediction index, Evaluation of prediction ability, Correlatability analysis, Statistical test