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地震 ›› 1999, Vol. 19 ›› Issue (4): 323-330.

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综合前兆异常月频次在地震预报中的应用及其意义

李献智, 李纲   

  1. 中国北京 100036 中国地震局分析预报中心
  • 收稿日期:1998-12-24 修回日期:1999-03-18 出版日期:1999-10-31 发布日期:2022-09-23
  • 作者简介:李献智,男, 1940年11月出生,研究员,主要从事地震综合预报等研究工作。
  • 基金资助:
    国家科委科技攻关项目( 95-04)部分成果。

MON THLY FREQUENCY OF COMPREH ENSIVE PRECURSORS: APPLICATION AND IMPLICATION

Li Xianzhi, Li Gang   

  1. Center for Analysis and Prediction, CSB, Beijing 100036, China
  • Received:1998-12-24 Revised:1999-03-18 Online:1999-10-31 Published:2022-09-23

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摘要： 依据中国地震局分析预报中心的周、月会商会和年度会商会所提供的综合前兆异常,即震前所提出的各类前兆异常,研究了中国大陆地区内的综合前兆异常月频次在地震预报中的应用和时空演化特征。该结果有利于预报水平的提高和对前兆异常实质的进一步认识,并可从中了解大区域应力场的加强过程和空间演化过程,为研究地震动力学、地震活动幕提供了前兆方面的资料。此外,由于是应用震前提出的前兆异常从大区域内进行的地震总结,不同于以往震例总结中的以具体地震为目标的局部总结,因而提出了一些新问题、新思路。

关键词: 地震预报, 综合前兆异常, 月频次, 时空演化

Abstract: All kinds of anomalies provided by the weekly， monthly and yearly seismic symposiums are used comprehensively to study the application of the frequency of the precursors to earthquake prediction within the mainland of and China spatial-temporal evolution of seismicity. This research will be beneficial to improve the scientific level of earthquake prediction and will lead to deepen understanding of seismic precursors, by which we can also know more about the increasing process and spatial evolutionof the large scale stress field. The results in this paper provide backg round precursory informa tion for the research on seismic dynamic and seismic episodes. The case analysis of earthquake in this paper is based on the precursory anomalies instead of some definite events within some special areas, which has been usually done in previous resea rches. Some new questions and new ideas are proposed.

Key words: earthquake prediction, Comprehensive precursory anomaly, Monthly frequency，Spatial temporal evolution