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地震 ›› 1999, Vol. 19 ›› Issue (4): 359-364.

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云南地区波速比预报效能的动态分析

蔡静观, 张喜玲   

  1. 中国昆明 650041 云南省地震局
  • 收稿日期:1998-10-28 修回日期:1999-06-14 出版日期:1999-10-31 发布日期:2022-09-23
  • 作者简介:蔡静观,女, 1946年7月出生,研究员,主要从事地震学研究和地震预报工作。
  • 基金资助:
    中国地震局“九五”科研攻关项目(95-04-04-02)

DYNAMIC ANALYSIS OF PREDICTION EFFECT BY USING WAVE VELOCITY RATIO IN YUNNAN AREA

Cai Jinguan, Zhang Xiling   

  1. Seismological Bureau of Yunnan Province, Kunming 650041, China
  • Received:1998-10-28 Revised:1999-06-14 Online:1999-10-31 Published:2022-09-23

PDF (PC)

103

摘要： 通过对云南地区10多年来地震波速比资料进行研究和应用,对波速比异常的预报效能作了动态分析,异常对应地震的时间、距离、幅度均随强震的孕育和强震活跃期的盛衰过程而演变。短临虚报异常可能提供强震孕育的中长期信息和中强震的中长期源兆。研究结果表明,其漏报的地震是发生在250 km 范围内的后续( 3个月内)中强地震;对发生在100 km范围内的中强震(强震前5个月)有对应,而300 km外的中强震漏报。

关键词: 波速比, 预报效能, 强震孕育, 云南地区

Abstract: The data of wave velocity ratio for more than ten years since 1985 are comparatively studied. It is proposed that i t is necessary to make dynamic analysis of prediction effect. In other words, the time, distance and amplitude of the corresponding earthquakes are changed with the build-up process of strong earthquakes. The anomaly for the short-term and imminent false prediction may provide the long-and medium-term seismogenic information or the focal precursors of the moderately strong earthquakes. The study shows that the moderately strong earthquakes failed to predict are those occurred within a range of 250 km in the following 3 months; and the moderately strong earthquakes, which show the corresponding relation, are those occurred within a rang e of 100 km in the following 5 months. The moderately strong earthquakes occurred beyond the rang e o f 300 km could not be predicted.

Key words: Wave velocity ratio, Prediction effect, Building-upprocess of strong earthquakes, Yunnan Area