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地震 ›› 2000, Vol. 20 ›› Issue (z1): 97-106.

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水化学参量中短期异常识别方法及效能评价

刘耀炜, 施锦, 曹玲玲, 潘树新   

  1. 中国地震局兰州地震研究所 ,甘肃 兰州 730000
  • 收稿日期:2000-06-05 修回日期:2000-06-12 出版日期:2000-09-30 发布日期:2022-09-23
  • 作者简介:刘耀炜 (1957-) ,男 ,甘肃甘谷人 ,研究员 ,主要从事地下流体及地震预报方法研究。
  • 基金资助:
    中国地震局“九五”科研攻关项目 (95-04-01-01-07) ,中国地震局兰州地震研究所论著编号: LC000032

The discriminant method of medium- and short-term anomaly and evaluation of prediction effect of hydrochemical parameters

LIU Yao-wei, SHI Jin, CAO Ling-ling, PAN Shu-xin   

  1. Lan zhou Institute of Seismology, CSB, Lanzhou 730000, China
  • Received:2000-06-05 Revised:2000-06-12 Online:2000-09-30 Published:2022-09-23

摘要: 总结了“九五”攻关前的水化学参量异常识别方法 ,优选出适合中短期异常识别的方法。提出中短期异常的特征标志: 异常加速指标、动态变化指标及趋势背景指标, 给出了与特征相对应的 中短期异常识别方法和判别指标。用全国 275个台项资料, 对各类方法进行了 R 值评分。由评分结果认识到: 由于大陆强震发生机理及所处的构造环境不同 ,不同地区异常特征也有所差别, 因而表现在 R 值评分值上的差别。对其异常识别方法的效能的研究结果认为: 异常加速指标是孕震进入中短期阶段的重要标志, 而描述这种特征的方法主要有幅度加速和高频异常频次加速。加速异常主要集中在孕震区的调整单元或断层活动地段。描述动态变化指标的方法以相对变差率为主 ,该方法对年动态稳定的台项有较强的异常识别能力。7级以上大震的重要标志是孕震区内至少有 20% 的异常台项出现半年以上趋势异常。

关键词: 水化学, 中短期异常, 识别方法, 异常指标

Abstract: The anomaly discriminant method of hydrochemical parameters before " the Nine-Five" project was summed up, and the method, which fits the medium- and short- term anomaly discrimination was optimally selected. Authors proposed the feature marks: the acceleration index of anomaly, the dynamic change index and t rend backg round index of medium- and short-term anomaly. At the same time, authors gave the discriminant method and distinguishing index to the medium- and shot-term anomaly related to their characters. Using the observational data from 275 stations, the authors computed R -value for all kinds of ways. The results show that because the strong earthquake-generation lies in different structural surrounding, their anomaly characteristics are different, so R -value is different. The result regarding the effect of the discriminant method on anomaly show that the anomaly acceleration index is the important mark that earthquake-generation entered the medium- and short-term. The main methods to describe anomaly acceleration index include the amplitude acceleration method and the high frequency anomalous frequency acceleration method. The acceleration anomalies are mainly concentrated in adjusting unit in earthquake -genera ting area or active segment of the fault. Descriptive dynamic change index mainly uses the relative ratio. This method has strong ability to discriminate the anomalies for observation station with annual stable change.The important index of MS ≥ 7. 0 earthquake is that at least 20 percent anomaly stations have t rend anomaly lasting more than six months in earthquake-generatingarea.

Key words: Hydrochemistry, Medium- and short-term anomaly, Discriminant method, Anomaly index

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