关键词: 时间-震级可预报模式, 长期预测, 震源区划分, 南北地震带

Abstract: In order to estimate quantitatively long-term seismic hazard in segmentation of the North-South seismic belt,we introduced the time-and magnitude-predietable model into the present study.On the basis of carefully analyzing reeurrence behavior of historieally stronge vents,39 seismogenic sources have been divided along the North-South seismiebelt.Using data of multiple-cycle recurrence of strong earthquakes on 27 of the 39 sources,we have preliminarily construeted a statistieally time and magnitude-predietable model for the belt.The results of caleulation suggest that the earthquake recurrence of various seismogenic sources display better time-predictable behanior and relatively poor magnitude-Predietable behavior.On the basis of recurrence time probabilistic model represented by the time-predietable equation,we have estimated the recurrence probabilities of the coming earthquakes for the individual seismogenic sources of the belt,and roughly estimated the magnitudes of the future earthquakes from magnitude-predietable equation.The result shows that within the coming 30 years,5 of the 39 seismogenic sources have conditional probabilities Pc higher than 0.4 for earthquake recurrences.These 5 sources are all loeated in the Yunnan provinee.Based on the probability values,sources with different risk classes have been identified.

Key words: Time-and magnitude-model, Long-term predietion, Seismologenic soureedi-viding, North-South seismic belt