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地震

地震 ›› 2001, Vol. 21 ›› Issue (1): 85-90.

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预测发震时间的水氡滑动变化率值及其检验*

范雪芳1, 王吉易2   

  1. 1.山西省地震局山西太原 030002;
    2.河北省地震局河北石家庄 050021
  • 出版日期:2001-01-31 发布日期:2022-10-27
  • 作者简介:范雪芳(1963-),女,山西万荣人,高级工程师,主要从事地震水文地球化学分析预报研究。
  • 基金资助:
    中国地震局“九五”科研攻关项目(95-04-04-01-04)

Prediction method for origin time based on groundwater Rnslip change rate

FAN Xue-fang1, WANG Ji-yi2   

  1. 1. Seismological Bureau of Shanxi Province, Taiyuan 030002, China,
    2. Seismo-logical Bureau of Hebei Prince, Shijiazhuang 050021, China
  • Online:2001-01-31 Published:2022-10-27

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摘要： 介绍了水氡滑动变化率的计算公式,滑动变化率的演化与地震时间的统计关系,据此给出了水氡滑动变化率值发震时间预测的步骤、判断指标和方法。结合震例,对预测效能进行了评价。检验性预测结果表明,预测的发震期限为1～12个月,平均5.1个月。该方法可以用于强震中短期预报。

关键词: 水氡, 滑动变化率, 发震时间, 中短期预报

Abstract: This paperint roduced the computa tion formula of groundwa ter radon slip changerate, stati stical relation betw een slip chang e ra te evolution and origin time of earthquake occurrence, on this basis, the step of origin time prediction by using groundwa ter radon slip change rate value, judgement index and method are giv en. Combining the earthquake cases, the prediction efficiency is evaluated, resul t indica tes that the predicted origin time rang e is 1～12 month, the average is 5.1 month. This method may apply to mediumand short-term earthquake prediction.

Key words: Groundwater radon, Slipchange rate, Earthquake origin time, Mid-and shor-term anomaly

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