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地震

地震 ›› 2001, Vol. 21 ›› Issue (2): 70-74.

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河南及邻区5级以上地震前中等地震活动增强特征*

谢智, 刘尧兴, 谢健健, 王文旭, 胡卫建, 马俊林   

  1. 河南省地震局, 河南郑州 450000
  • 收稿日期:2000-09-06 修回日期:2000-10-16 出版日期:2001-04-30 发布日期:2022-10-27
  • 作者简介:谢智,男,回族河南安阳人研究员主要从事地震活动分析综合预报等研究。

Characteristics of the enhancement of activity of moderate earthquakes before M≥5 earthquakes in Henan Province and its adjacent areas

XIE Zhi, LIU Yao-xing, XIE Jian-jian, WANG Wen-xue, HU Wei-jian, MA Jun-lin   

  1. Seismological Bureau of Henan Province, Zhengzhou 450000, China
  • Received:2000-09-06 Revised:2000-10-16 Online:2001-04-30 Published:2022-10-27

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146

摘要： 通过对河南及邻区1970～2000年全部地震资料的系统处理,发现5级以上地震前存在中等地震活动增强特征。经分析认为:在本研究区域内,中等地震活动增强异常结束后2年内发生5级地震的概率为0.71;发震地点位于中等地震活动增强中的第一次、最后一次地震震中附近及其50km内的概率均为0.86。其预测效能R值评分为0.58。中等地震活动增强活动可以作为预测5级以上地震的一种中期预测方法。

关键词: 地震预报, 中等地震, 地震活动, 河南

Abstract: In this paper, the enhancement of activity of moderate earthquakes before the M≥5 earthquakes in Henan province and its neighboring areas since 1970 has been studied. The study results show that: after anomaly for 2 years the probabili ty of earthquake occurrence is 0.75. The distance betw een the earthquake location and the first or last epicenter of the enhancement of activi ty of moderate earthquakes is less than or equal to 50km, and its probabili ty is 0.75. The error of prediction mag ni tude is from - 0.5 to 0.5. TheR-value is 0.68. The method show sbet ter result of prediction.

Key words: Earthquake prediction, Seismicity enhancement, Moderate earthquake, Henan

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