影响b值计算误差的Monte Carlo实验研究

地震 ›› 2013, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (4): 135-144.

影响b值计算误差的Monte Carlo实验研究

刘善琪, 李永兵, 田会全, 朱伯靖, 石耀霖

中国科学院计算地球动力学重点实验室, 中国科学院大学, 北京 100049

收稿日期:2013-01-11 修回日期:2013-04-07 发布日期:2020-09-27
作者简介:刘善琪(1987-), 女, 山东济宁人, 在读博士, 主要从事矿物、岩石物性模拟等方面的研究。
基金资助:
地壳深部探测专项(SinoProbe-07)和国家科技支撑计划项目(2011BAB03B09)

Monte Carlo Experiments on the Influencing Factors of b Value Calculation Errors

LIU Shan-qi, LI Yong-bing, TIAN Hui-quan, ZHU Bo-jing, SHI Yao-lin

Key Laboratory of Computational Geodynamics, CAS, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

Received:2013-01-11 Revised:2013-04-07 Published:2020-09-27

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 本文假设地震的发生与时间的关系遵循稳态泊松模型, 假设地震震级M服从参数为1/β的指数分布, 其中β=b/loge, 在此基础上生成地震目录。用最小二乘法估算b值, 分别从样本数量、震级间隔、震级误差三方面分析b值误差的大小。统计分析结果表明, b值的标准偏差随着样本数量的增多而减小; 随着震级间隔的增大而减小; 震级误差使b值的标准误差变大。本文可以为利用真实地震目录求b值时选择适当的方法提供参考。

关键词: b值, Monte Carlo, 最小二乘法, 地震危险性分析

Abstract: In this paper, we assume that relationship between earthquake occurrence and time follows stationary Poisson model; and earthquake magnitude M is an exponential distribution with parameter 1/β, β=b/loge. Earthquake catalog are generated based on this assumption. We use the least square method to estimate b values, and analysis the error of b values from number of samples, magnitude interval, and magnitude respectively. Statistical analysis shows that the standard deviation of b values decreases with the increase of the number of samples, the standard deviation of b values decreases with the increase of the magnitude interval, and magnitude error makes the standard deviation of b value bigger.

Key words: b value, Monte Carlo, Least square method, Seismic hazard analysis

中图分类号:

P315.7

刘善琪, 李永兵, 田会全, 朱伯靖, 石耀霖. 影响b值计算误差的Monte Carlo实验研究[J]. 地震, 2013, 33(4): 135-144.

LIU Shan-qi, LI Yong-bing, TIAN Hui-quan, ZHU Bo-jing, SHI Yao-lin. Monte Carlo Experiments on the Influencing Factors of b Value Calculation Errors[J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2013, 33(4): 135-144.

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