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地震 ›› 2011, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (3): 135-142.

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汶川8.0级地震前地震活动能量场中短期异常

罗国富, 杨明芝, 马禾青, 许晓庆   

  1. 宁夏回族自治区地震局, 宁夏 银川 750001
  • 收稿日期:2010-11-05 修回日期:2011-02-24 发布日期:2021-09-09
  • 作者简介:罗国富(1987-), 男, 山西沁源人, 硕士, 主要从事地震活动性等研究。
  • 基金资助:
    宁夏自然科学基金项目(NZ10206)和2011年震情跟踪合同制定向工作任务(2011020111)资助

Intermediate and Short-term Anomalies of Seismic Activity Energy Field before the Wenchuan M8.0 Earthquake

LUO Guo-fu, YANG Ming-zhi, MA He-qing, XU Xiao-qing   

  1. Eathquake Administration of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, Yinchuan 750001, China
  • Received:2010-11-05 Revised:2011-02-24 Published:2021-09-09

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摘要： 本文应用随机函数理论, 将地震释放能量作为地震活动场的基本要素, 采用自然正交函数(或称经验正交函数)展开方法, 讨论了2008年汶川8.0级地震前区域地震活动能量场的中短期时空异常。 结果表明, 汶川8.0级地震前震源周围区域能量场的几个主要特征值对应的特征向量(典型场)的时间权重因子出现了明显中长期异常变化, 这可能是汶川地震中期异常指标; 而沿龙门山断裂带能量场的几个区域特征值对应的时间因子出现了显著短期异常变化, 这可能是汶川地震短期异常指标。 笔者认为该方法是一种值得进一步探讨的地震活动性预测方法。

关键词: 地震活动能量场, 自然正交函数, 典型场, 汶川8.0级地震

Abstract: This article applies random function theory, and uses seismic energy released as the basic elements of seismic activity. Using natural orthogonal function (or empirical orthogonal function) expansion method we discussed the short-term time-space anomaly in the energy field of regional seismic activity before the 2008 Wenchuan 8.0 earthquake. The results show that the time weighting factor of eigenvectors (typical field) corresponding to several major features of the field values shows a prominent long-term abnormal change around the source region before the M8.0 earthquake. The time weighting factor corresponding to everal regional characteristic values of energy field along the Longmenshan fault zone shows very obvious short-term anomaly. The authors believe that this method is worthy of further study for prediction of earthquake activity.

Key words: Energy field, Natural orthogonal function, Typical field, Wenchuan M8.0 earthquake

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