一个关于临界地震的临界区域判别的方法

地震 ›› 2000, Vol. 20 ›› Issue (4): 28-38.

一个关于临界地震的临界区域判别的方法

杨文政¹, David Vere-Jones², 马丽¹, 刘杰¹

1.中国地震局分析预报中心, 北京 100036;
2.School of Math ematical and Computing Sciences, Victoria University of Wellington, Welling ton PO Box 600 New Zealand

收稿日期:2000-04-24 修回日期:2000-06-16 出版日期:2000-10-31 发布日期:2022-09-22
作者简介:杨文政 (1974-),男,浙江宁波人,研究实习员,主要从事地震预报和孕震模型研究。
基金资助:
地震科学联合基金项目 (198044)

A method for locating the critical region of a future earthquake using the critical earthquake concept

YANG Wen-zheng, VERE-JON ES David, MA Li, LIU Jie

1. Center for Analysis and Prediction, CSB, Beijing 100036, China;
2. School of Math ematical and Computing Sciences Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, New Zealand

Received:2000-04-24 Revised:2000-06-16 Online:2000-10-31 Published:2022-09-22

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 由临界地震的概念和外推 Bow man等人关于孕育未来地震半径的思想,发展出一个临界圆重叠方法来寻找未来强震的临界区域位置。模拟实验的对比检验表明这种方法是有效的。使用主震前一定时间内地震目录,这个方法能找出临界区域,而未来震中位置将位于临界区域内或其边缘。使用新西兰和中国新疆南部的中强震目录检验,该方法可以在震前较准确地定位出强震的临界区域位置。使用中国 1995年至 1999年 8月的小震目录,给出 1999年 8月以后中国未来强震临界区域的分布,而 1999年 8月以后至 2000年 6月 16日 (截稿日期)在中国 (除西藏地区外)所发生的 5. 0级以上的地震几乎均位于所给出的临界区域内。

关键词: 临界圆重叠, 临界区域, 地震矩加速释放模型

Abstract: Using the critical point concept, and ex tending Bow man 's idea on critical earthquake, we develop an intersecting circle method to locate critical region. A simulation check shows that this method is effective in finding a given critical regio n. We selected several real cases from New Zealand and China, and used this method to find the critical regions before the occurrence of large earthquakes. The result shows that this method is valid to detect a critical region and the epicenter of main shock might be in the critical region. We tried this method to find the critical regions of China with the data between January 1st, 1995 and August 31_st, 1999. The result show s that nearly all of those earthquakes with M (5. 0 occurred in China (except the Tibetan region) between August 31_st, 1999 and June 16_th, 2000 are situated in the critical regions.

Key words: Intersecting circle, Critical region, AM R Model

中图分类号:

杨文政, David Vere-Jones, 马丽, 刘杰. 一个关于临界地震的临界区域判别的方法[J]. 地震, 2000, 20(4): 28-38.

YANG Wen-zheng, VERE-JON ES David, MA Li, LIU Jie. A method for locating the critical region of a future earthquake using the critical earthquake concept[J]. EARTHQUAKE, 2000, 20(4): 28-38.

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