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地震 ›› 1998, Vol. 18 ›› Issue (4): 325-330.

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华北地区地震活动的月相效应及其预测意义①

陈学忠1), 钟南才2), 丁鉴海1)   

  1. 1)中国北京 100036 中国地震局分析预报中心;
    2)中国河北 101601 防灾技术髙等专科学校
  • 收稿日期:1998-01-12 修回日期:1998-03-11 发布日期:2022-09-23
  • 作者简介:陈学忠, 男,1963年8月出生,副研究员,1995年获博士学位,主要从事地震成因、前兆机理及地 震预报研究工作。
  • 基金资助:
    ①国家地震局“九五”科研攻关项目〔95-04-01-02-01)

THE EFFECT OF LUNAR PHASE OF SEISMICITY IN NORTH CHINA AND ITS SIGNIFICANCE TO EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION

Chen Xuezhong1), Zhong Nancai2), Ding Jianhai1)   

  1. 1)Center for Analysis and Prediction. Bejing 100036, China;
    2)The Technical College of Precautions Against Natural Calamities, Beijing 101601, China
  • Received:1998-01-12 Revised:1998-03-11 Published:2022-09-23

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摘要： 对华北地区1970年以来ML4.0以上地震的月相效应进行了分析。结果表明,华北地区Ms 5.0以上地震活动的月相效应并不明显,而是呈现较强的随机性。但在7级以上强震发生 前,中等地震的发生具有较为明显的月相效应,这对7级以上强震的发生具有中期（1~3年)预 测意义。未来强震可能发生在“朔望地震”分布的地区。目前,华北地区中等地震发生没有显示明显的月相效应,因此未来1~2年内华北地区发生7级以上地震的可能性较小。

关键词: 华北地区, 地震活动, 月相效应

Abstract: The effect of lunar phase of earthquakes with ML≥4.0 occurred in North China since 1970 is analyzed. The results indicate that the occurrence of earthquakes with Ms≥5.0 does not show correlation with the lunar phase and is obviously stochastic. Before the strong earthquakes with Ms≥7.0, however, the occurrence of the moderate earthquake is obviously related to the lunar phase. It is significant in the medium-and short-term prediction of earthquakes Ms≥7.0. When the moderate earthquakes occur near the period of new moon or full moon, the future strong earthquakes would occur. At Present, the occurrence of the moderate earthquakes in North China does not show correlation to the lunar phase, so thepossibility of the occurrence of earthquakes with Ms≥7.0 will be relatively low.

Key words: North China, Seismicity, Effect of lunar phase