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地震

地震 ›› 1998, Vol. 18 ›› Issue (4): 331-336.

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中-长期地震预测方法概率增益的评估①

张立人   

  1. 中国北京100036中国地震局分析预报中心
  • 收稿日期:1998-03-17 修回日期:1998-05-29 出版日期:1998-10-31 发布日期:2022-09-23
  • 作者简介:张立人,男.1943年5月出生,副研究员,主要从事中长期地震预测、地震地质、地震工程等研究工作。
  • 基金资助:
    ①国家地震局“九五”科研攻关项目（95-04-07-Q1)成果之一

ASSESSMENT OF PROBABILITY GAINS OF PREDICTION METHODS IN MEDIUM AND LONG-TERM EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION

Zhang Liren   

  1. Center for Analysis and Prediction, CSB. Beijing 100036, China
  • Received:1998-03-17 Revised:1998-05-29 Online:1998-10-31 Published:2022-09-23

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摘要： 对各种不同时空尺度地震预测方法的概率增益K的评估,是应用地震预测综合概率增益模型的基本研究内容之一。各种尺度地震预测方法可分为空间增益、时间增益和时空增益三种类型。初步研究了概率增益K的评估方法,给出由预测状态概率评估概率增益K的关系,并得出地震预测方法的R值评分与概率增益K的关系。
从概率增益模型的角度看,在现阶段作出较好的中-长期地震综合预测是有可能的。

关键词: 地震预测, 预测效能评估, 概率增益模型

Abstract: The assessment of probability gains K of earthquake prediction methods with different time and space scales is one of basic studies on synthetical probability gain model of earthquake prediction. The earthquake prediction methods with different time and space scales can be divided into tree types,i.e. time gain, space gain and time-space gain. In this paper, the assessment methods of probability gains are studied, the relations between prediction state probability and probability gain and between prediction R value and probability gain are given. On the basis of synthetical probability gain model, it is possible to make the better medium- and long term earthquake predictions at present time.

Key words: Earthquake prediction, Prediction effect evaluation, Probability gain model