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地震

地震 ›› 2008, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (2): 101-107.

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查表法设计地震活动模糊预测预警系统

武安绪1, 张晓东2, 张永仙2, 林向东1, 李平安1, 鲁亚军1, 穆会泳1   

  1. 1.北京市地震局, 北京 100080;
    2.中国地震台网中心, 北京 100045
  • 收稿日期:2007-09-27 修回日期:2007-11-26 出版日期:2008-04-30 发布日期:2021-10-29
  • 作者简介:武安绪(1967- ), 男, 河南邓州人, 副研究员, 主要从事地震预测与系统等研究。
  • 基金资助:
    地震科学联合基金 (A07058); 国家科技攻关项目(2006BAC01B03-02-03); 国家科技攻关项目(2006BAC01B03-04-04)

Fuzzy system on forecast and pre-warning of seismic activity based on learning from examples (FSLE)

WU An-xu1, ZHANG Xiao-dong2, ZHANG Yong-xian2, LIN Xiang-dong1, LI Ping-an1, LU Ya-jun1, MU Hui-yong1   

  1. 1. Earthquake Administration of Beijing Municipality,Beijing 100080;
    2. China Earthquake Networks Center, Beijing 100045, China
  • Received:2007-09-27 Revised:2007-11-26 Online:2008-04-30 Published:2021-10-29

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摘要： 模糊数学方法在地震学研究, 特别是在地震预测工作中起到过重要的作用。 近年发展起来的模糊查表法是模糊数学中新出现的一种新的模糊系统有效方法, 在智能控制、 机器学习、 序列建模、 综合预测中获得了广泛的应用, 取得了显著效果。 基于此, 把该方法引入地震活动趋势预测和预警研究工作中: 首先介绍了模糊查表法的方法与原理, 然后基于该方法和由最大震级序列形成的多维样本建立了华北地区及主要地震活动带最大震级时间序列的趋势预测和预警模型, 并对获得的模型进行了内符检验, 最后对建模方法和计算结果进行了详细讨论。 综合分析认为, 该方法原理简单直观, 计算结果稳健, 建模与预测精度较高, 外推泛化能力较强, 可以作为地震趋势预测和预警的一种有效方法。

关键词: 查表法设计模糊系统, 地震活动, 地震预测, 地震预警

Abstract: The application of Fuzzy mathematics plays an important role in seismology, especially in earthquake prediction. Presently, a new fuzzy system method in fuzzy mathematics-the Fuzzy system by learning from examples (FSLE) is developed, which has been widely used in artificial intelligence, machine learning, series modelling and synthetical prediction, and obtained significant effect. Based on this, the authors introduced this method into trend prediction and pre-warning study of seismic activity: Firstly, the theory of fuzzy system by learning from examples (FSLE) is introduced, and then this method is firstly used in seismic prediction and pre-warning of time-series of the earthquake maximum magnitude in northern China. The result shows that the FSLE method has good prospect for forecast and pre-warning of earthquakes, and so it has shown that the method may be a new effective method in analyzing of forecast and pre-warning of seismic activity.

Key words: Fuzzy system by learning from examples (FSLE), Seismic activity, Earthquake forecast, Seismic pre-warning

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