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地震 ›› 2008, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (2): 108-114.

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2006年7月4日文安5.1级地震短期预测的实践

邵永新, 王俊国   

  1. 天津市地震局, 天津 300201
  • 收稿日期:2007-10-08 修回日期:2007-11-14 出版日期:2008-04-30 发布日期:2021-10-29
  • 作者简介:邵永新(1966-), 男, 天津市人, 高级工程师, 主要从事地震预报和地下流体等研究。
  • 基金资助:
    天津市地震局基金项目(074005)

The scientific practice of the short-term prediction of Wen'an M5.1 earthquake on July 4, 2006

SHAO Yong-xin, WANG Jun-guo   

  1. Earthquake Administration of Tianjin Municipality, Tianjin 300201, China
  • Received:2007-10-08 Revised:2007-11-14 Online:2008-04-30 Published:2021-10-29

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摘要： 回顾了2006年7月4日文安MS5.1地震前天津市地震局的预测过程。 文安地震前, 天津及邻近地区曾出现了地震活动及4项地下流体异常。 在地震发生的时间、 地点和强度三要素的预报上, 根据地震活动异常认为地震发生的地点应在天津及邻近地区; 根据流体异常认为发生的时间应在7月中旬以前; 而根据地震活动和流体异常综合分析认为震级应在ML4.5左右。 这种预测结果在天津市地震局文安地震前的周、 月会商中均已体现。 从预测的结果看, 时间、 地点预测基本正确, 震级有一定偏差。

关键词: 地震活动异常, 地下流体异常, 文安地震, 预测

Abstract: This paper looked back the prediction process before Wen'an MS5.1 earthquake on July 4, 2006 by Earthquake Administration of Tianjin Municipality. Before Wen'an earthquake, there were seismic activity anomalies and 4 anomalies of underground fluid in Tianjin and its adjacent area. The three main elements, including the occurrence time, location and intensity of earthquake, were predicted. The location was predicted based on anomaly of seismic activity and considered in Tianjin and its adjacent area. According to anomaly of underground fluid, it was considered that the occurrence time would be middle July and based on combination of seismicity and underground fluid anomalies, the magnitude was predicted as around ML=4.5. Such results have been recorded on the weekly and monthly discussion meeting of Earthquake Administration of Tianjin Municipality before the earthquake. The results indicate that the occurrence time and location is roughly right, the magnitude is slightly deviated .

Key words: Seismic activity anomaly, Underground fluid anomaly, Wen'an earthquake, Prediction

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